The ‘think’ series aims to promote debate on topics across the spectrum of actuarial work and beyond. It looks to provide a platform for members and stakeholders to share views that may differ from the IFoA’s ‘house’ view.
Through this, we hope to challenge the status quo within the profession, question orthodoxy, and shine a light on complex or under-examined issues. At its heart, the series is about stimulating discussion and dialogue to help tackle issues from a different perspective.
Edition 19: When precision undermines pooling: rethinking insurability in an age of advanced risk modelling
The nineteenth edition of our ‘think’ series has been authored by David McNamara, Head of Catastrophe and Climate Analytics at FloodRe.
'When precision undermines pooling’ explores how advances in catastrophe risk modelling and flood mapping are changing the insurance industry's approach to risk.
The paper argues that while increasingly sophisticated models have improved our understanding of risk, they can also widen protection gaps by making it easier to identify properties perceived as uninsurable. It examines how risk perception, climate change and model uncertainty influence the affordability and availability of insurance.
Read the full piece to discover why uncertainty remains a fundamental part of insurability and why greater scrutiny of risk models is essential to preserving effective risk sharing in the future.
Previous editions
‘think’ edition 18: Hidden corridors
‘think’ edition 17: Unfair by design
‘think’ edition 16: The Citizens Advance
‘think’ edition 15: Prioritising prevention: Investing for population health
‘think’ edition 14: Weighing up the future: The value of weight management
‘think’ edition 13: The agentic model office: AI agents and the future of insurance organisations
‘think’ edition 12: UK Stamp Duty: a path to enhanced mobility and social mobility
‘think’ edition 11: Behavioural interventions for building climate resilience
‘think’ edition 10: Student loans: failing students
‘think’ edition 9: The population implosion: what choices do we have?
‘think’ edition 8: Potholes and possibilities: the policy and reputational road ahead for insurance
‘think’ edition 7: UK longevity – are we missing a trick?
‘think’ edition 6: Public private partnerships – why the time is ripe for a new generation of smarter PPPs to flourish
‘think’ edition 5: Clearing the air: the UK’s plan for a smoke free generation
‘think’ edition 4: The Brain Game: How can actuaries leverage behavioural economics?
‘think’ edition 3: Tackling the gender pensions gap – the road to financial equality in retirement
‘think’ edition 2: Much to GAIN – valuing neurodiversity in the workplace
‘think’ edition 1: Revolutionising fairness to enable digital insurance
Related resources
Inclusive Insurance
Our inclusive insurance bulletin series explores the rapidly changing risks facing society and how the insurance sector must respond to the challenge.
Poverty Premium
Our Poverty Premium campaign, in collaboration with charity Fair by Design, looks at access to insurance, and how it is often those who most need cover who are unable to obtain it.
Great Risk Transfer
Here we explore the trend to transfer risks from institutions – such as employers, the state, and financial services providers – to individuals.